The War on Coal is Working
Let's Keep Up the Good Work
In 2009, a group of fossil fuel lobbyists, Republican congressmen, and conservative media pundits banded together to accuse newly elected US president Barack Obama of a truly heinous crime. Through its proposed pollution regulations, the Obama administration was foisting an unprecedented and borderline treasonous policy upon the American people. It was pursuing a “war on coal.”
The combustion of coal kills millions of people worldwide every year via particulate air pollution.1 Additionally, coal plants create acid rain, mercury pollution, nitrogen oxides which form smog, and wastewater which contains toxic heavy metals like arsenic and lead. Coal also emits enormous amounts of CO₂, and is the single largest driver of climate change. If ever there were an economic activity worthy of waging a metaphorical war against, it would, in fact, be the burning of coal.
The political sensitivities of the time precluded a formal declaration in the United States. But since around 2010, America and the rest of the world have indeed been at war with coal, as governments recognized its environmental dangers and took concrete steps to phase out its use.
It’s a war the world is winning.
Since 2010, annual CO2 emissions from coal have plummeted -29% in Australia, -42% in Poland, -52% in Germany, -62% in the United States, -70% in Canada, -81% in Italy, -86% in the United Kingdom, and -46% across high-income countries as a whole.2
Wealthy nations are on their way to eliminating coal use, particularly in the power sector - which accounts for about two-thirds of overall coal consumption. In 2010, the United States generated 44.9% of its electricity from coal.3 In 2025, it only accounted for around 16%. For the United Kingdom that figure is now 0%. The country that invented the modern coal industry closed its last coal mine in 2023 and shuttered its last coal-fired power station last year.
The OECD group of developed nations consumed 12,800 TWh of coal in 2010, falling to only 6,850 TWh in 2025. This remarkable achievement has been accomplished primarily by replacing coal in the electricity generation mix with wind and solar. Fossil gas has played an important role in North America, but only accounts for about 25% of coal replacement globally.
There is still work to be done. Power sector emissions must be brought to zero. In addition, alternatives to coal must be found in the production of iron, steel, and cement. Yet in the developed world, the War on Coal has so far been a lopsided victory for environmentalists.
Build Before Break
Despite monumental progress in rich countries, global coal consumption has gently risen over the last fifteen years - from around 42,000 TWh in 2010 to 48,000 TWh in 2025. The bulk of this increase has come from the two most populous countries in the world - China and India. Annual coal consumption is 5258 TWh higher in China and 3030 TWh higher in India than fifteen years ago.
These figures look bleak at first glance. And indeed many a journalist has been fooled by a facile reading of the numbers without understanding the underlying dynamics.4 Contrary to the prevailing narrative, there are very good reasons for optimism on China and India.
Air pollution from coal-fired power plants in both countries threatens social stability, heightening the urgency of phase-out efforts. And renewables are cheaper than ever. China is rapidly phasing out coal from its power sector and replacing it with clean wind and solar. Coal generated 77% of the country’s electricity in 2010, but only 57% in 2025.5 It should be under 50% before the end of the decade.
India, for its part, is doing the exact same thing as China at an even earlier point in its economic development cycle. Remarkably, renewable energy is growing even faster. India added 38 GW of solar capacity in 2025, increasing by 40% the size of its total solar generation capacity in a single year. Meanwhile, coal power sector emissions fell 3% in 2025 and may be entering a plateau phase.6
It is very possible that in the next few years both China and India join the developed world in becoming negative net contributors to coal consumption, dragging global numbers downward. Peak coal may be upon us.
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Carbo delenda est
Total victory requires a few more battles. First, the war needs to expand to Southeast Asia. There is a group of Southeast Asian countries - the Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Malaysia - that have actually seen their coal consumption increase drastically since 2010. Together these countries now represent 5.6% of global coal consumption - more than the United States at 4.8%.
Indonesia was once a major oil exporter, but declining production means it no longer produces enough for its own domestic needs and can no longer afford to burn oil for electricity. The Philippines bet heavily on fossil gas, only to have its only gas field decline much more quickly than expected. Several global schemes exist to coax these countries into closing their coal plants, so far to no avail.
Second, the United States will need to reenter the conflict. The second Trump administration has taken drastic, legally-questionable measures to prop up coal - most notably forcing coal-fired power plants scheduled to close to stay open indefinitely.7 These brutish measures are certain to fail in the long run, as they do not address the economic uncompetitiveness of coal in the marketplace. And they may fail in the short run, as court challenges could soon render them null and void.
The Democrats - America’s relatively eco-friendly major political party - should have a plan to resume the War on Coal if they take power in Congress next year or secure the White House in 2028. That plan should include, first and foremost, removing regulatory roadblocks to renewable development, but also an end to zombie coal stations kept alive by administrative fiat, and the resurrection of Biden-era clean-air standards.
Third, technological solutions must be found for non-power sector emissions. It is possible to make steel and cement without coal using hydrogen, but progress at scaling these approaches has been lethargic. One bright spot is the Swedish company Stegra, which aims to start making low-carbon, coal-free steel this year at its factory in northern Sweden.
The War on Coal is a central pillar of the energy transition away from fossil fuels - one of the most important economic transitions in the history of humanity. It is a just war; one of self-defense against an enemy that threatens the tranquility of our biosphere and the remarkable civilization our species has built therein.
Despite pessimistic, doomerist headlines to the contrary - a fuller, contextualized analysis of the data reveals it is a war we are winning. And we should fight on.
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The China/India analysis is spot-on. Most coverage misses that they're in build-befor-break mode while developed economies just shut down capacity. India's 40% solar capacity jump in a single year is insane and gets zero attention. The Southeast Asia bottelneck is real tho, Philippines especially needs financing mechanisms that work at their economic level.